Twitter Losing 60 Percent of Visitors Per Month?
By Anna Johnson on May 2nd, 2009You’ve probably read – and we’ve certainly published – statistics showing that Twitter’s popularity has sky-rocketed over the last year. Indeed, in March alone the number of worldwide visitors to Twitter.com doubled.
But new research from Nielsen indicates that Twitter’s enormous growth is hiding something that may well undermine the long-term viability of the micro-blogging service: 60 percent of Twitter users leave the service after a month.
According to Nielsen, Twitter is sitting on a 40 percent monthly audience retention rate. Before Oprah’s debut on the service last week, the rate was even lower at below 30 percent.
Nielsen’s analysis suggests that a 40 percent retention rate will limit Twitter’s ultimate “reach” to about 10 percent of its potential audience. In other words, at some point, there just won’t be enough new users to compensate for those leaving the service.
Although Twitter has only recently hit the mainstream (i.e. thanks to Oprah and other mainstream media publicity) a comparison between where it is now with where popular social networks Facebook and MySpace were when they were at similar growth points shows that those networks had double the retention rates of Twitter.
Nielsen reports that during their ‘exploding growth phases’ the retention rates of Facebook and MySpace increased. Right now, both social networks currently enjoy almost 70 percent retention levels.
Now, Nielsen’s research is confined to visitors to the Twitter.com website and does not account for the huge array of other means by which people access the service e.g. via mobile devices and other web, browser and desktop based applications.
So, without knowing what the retention rate is like on those other services – and the proportion of Twitter users that use them – we don’t have the full picture of retention.
Having said that, Nielsen IS ‘apples with apples’. It is comparing the growth of visitors to Twitter.com with the retention of visitors to Twitter.com.
So, if Nielsen’s research is valid, then it’s still fair to say that the huge growth of visitors to Twitter.com may ultimately screech to a halt if Twitter cannot increase the average retention rate.
On the other hand, if a lot of Twitter.com users are not leaving the service but are actually switching to other Twitter applications by which to access the service, then again, the retention rate may be higher than Nielsen’s research indicates.
It’s all very interesting. And for all the questions over Twitter’s future, it’s not surprising that Nielsen, like many (including us), are hedging its bets by having a Twitter account!
May 2nd, 2009 at 10:40 am
Twitter is still a new concept and uses a different platform than most other social network sites. I don’t think people who are new to twitter realize at first what the site can do for them. Give it some time and we’ll see what happens.
May 2nd, 2009 at 11:54 am
Yeah Anna, this might be the truth.
Question is, what exactly is the benefit of using Twitter ?
It took me a long time and finally I opened last week 2 accounts, just to test the waters.
My judgement is that Twitter is \"toy\" for people which have spare time, just as social sites like MySpace or Orkut.
It\’s correct that IM\’s can build some income streams on those medias, but I do believe that the traffic you get from Twitter is similar in quality then from Bookmarking sources. And I\’m only after QUALITY traffic today in time.
The only valid traffic IMO is from a account with a brand name, such as John Reese, Frank Kern or others. If you are a no name in this business I doubt very much that the time you spend at Twitter brings you the return you deserve.
For me, It\’ silly to \"sneak\" behind people. But just as \"Big Brother\" those kind of things attract a lot of attention at the beginning, but then drop as fast as it did grow.
Just MHO, ready to get slapped if I\’m telling some bull here
G.
May 4th, 2009 at 3:24 am
HI Guido, I think Twitter can be useful for marketers in a number of ways. For instance, to tap into what people are talking about – including competitors, customers and prospects, or just to get some ideas about a potential niche market to go into. It can also be useful to set up a specific Twitter account for the purpose of providing de facto customer support or notifications. And, as a user, it can be useful to follow particular individuals that provide valuable information and updates. And there are numerous other uses too.
BUT… I see a LOT of people jumping onto Twitter, following everyone under the sun (in order to get followed back) and I really question whether they know what they’re doing or are really getting a lot out of it. Plus, due to Twitter still evolving, many of us are still working out how we intend to make the best use of it.
Nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines to see how it can fit into your existing marketing strategy… if it does at all. And I also believe that it’s better not to get involved if it ends up distracting you from activities that are much conducive to building a successful business