eMarketer CEO, Geoff Ramsey, has set out his seven (7) predictions for marketing in 2009. Nothing too surprising, but there is at least one insight worth elaborating on…

1. Marketers as a whole will reduce their marketing spend.

2. Among traditional media ad spending, newspapers, radio and magazines will suffer the most. In each case the economic recession is exacerbating an existing trend. Television will hold up the best, but will likely experience a 5 percent or greater decline in spending. Ad spending on radio will fall by 5 to 8 percent.

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In August, eMarketer projected online advertising expenditure to grow by 16 percent between 2008 and 2009 - from $24.5 billion to $28.5 billion. Due to the current financial crisis and economic recession that have gripped, or are about to grip, many Western economies, eMarketer plans to revise downward its online ad spending prediction.

But while online spending may be more subdued in the coming year or so, eMarketer still expects it to grow significantly over the coming few years. This is due to seven (7) reasons that make the Internet an increasingly desirable advertising medium. The Internet:

1. Is more measurable and accountable than traditional channels.
2. Allows for better, more-granular targeting than other forms of media.
3. Is interactive, allowing for a higher degree of engagement with prospects and customers.
4. Accounts for more media time among various, particularly younger, consumers.
5. Taps into the ‘consumer-in-control movement’, enabling marketers to join consumers’ conversations.
6. Features web 2.0 phenomena such as blogs, social networks and Twitter that provide marketers with the ability to insight into consumer behavior and attitudes.
7. Allows marketers to reach prospects throughout the entire consumer buying cycle, from initial awareness, through pre-information-gathering, to purchase and post-sale support.

Source: Geoff Ramsey, “Online Ad Spending Will Keep Growing”, eMarketer, October 27, 2008

Speaking about the future of online video at the Interactive Advertising Bureau’s recent MIXX conference, eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey said that in the short- to- mid-term, television and online video models will merge, both in terms of content and ads.

Mr Ramsay believes that while television will become more measurable - and accountable - the quality of online video content will improve to rival TV. Meanwhile, Ramsay sees the on-demand video model to be particularly promising. He also sees the format - where viewers can watch whatever they want at any time - will continue to be largely ad-supported.

While the online video medium will remain small in terms of total ad dollars — especially compared with the $70 billion U.S. television market — eMarketer expects it to grow to exceed $3 billion by 2012 in the U.S.

Source: eMarketer, “Where Is Online Video Headed?”, eMarketer, October 3, 2008