If you’ve been involved in direct response marketing for any length of time, you’ve probably heard of the concept of ‘lifetime customer value’ (LCV). Indeed, you may have heard various marketing experts extol the virtues of LCV as being the chief indicator of how much you should spend to acquire a customer.
For instance, if you know that the total or lifetime gross profit generated by an average customer is $100, you know that you can afford to spend $95 in marketing costs to acquire that customer and still make money ($5).
But there are two MAJOR problems with blindly letting LCV dictate your marketing spend. The first problem is, perhaps, not so worrying. But the second can be FATAL to your business.
The first problem is this: while LCV may be used to indicate how much you CAN afford to spend to acquire a customer, it shouldn’t be used to indicate how much you SHOULD spend.
Sure, you can spend $95 to buy an average customer and be comfortable in knowing that you’ll still derive $5 in real profit from that customer. But do you want to generate $5 in real profit… or $10… or $50?
Perhaps there is a better use of your money that can generate much more in real profits for your business. It might be investing in an alternative form or marketing… or it might be focusing on an entirely different target market altogether.
Now, if you understand that LCV is a benchmark rather than an indicator of how much you should spend on marketing, this may not be an issue.
But here’s where blindly relying on LCV can be a HUGE problem… and one which could literally SEND YOU BROKE.
Let’s consider an example to show you the FATAL FLAW in relying on LCV to determine your upfront marketing spend:
- The lifetime of your average customer is 2 years.
- During their lifetime of 2 years, the average customer generates $100 in gross profit.
- You calculate that you can and should spend an average of $50 to acquire a customer.
Nothing wrong with this picture, right? You can afford to spend $50 on customer acquisition because you’ll realize $50 in average profit net of marketing expenses per customer you acquire.
But what if your CASH FLOW is such that you can’t afford to wait until your average customer generates that overall $100 in gross profit?
In other words, let’s say you spend $50 on customer acquisition in Year 1, while your customer generates an average gross profit of $30 in Year 1 and an average gross profit of $70 in Year 2.
Now, because your marketing expense exceeds your average customer profit in Year 1, you experience a loss of $20 per customer.
That’s fine… assuming you have $20 in spare cash per customer lying around. Because if you don’t… your business is in trouble!
Which means you can’t simply rely on LCV to determine how much to spend on customer acquisition. You also need to bear in mind how much you can afford given your cash flow situation.
In this example, assuming you don’t have any sources of cash apart from sales, you can really only afford to spend $30 up front. Spend any more and you’ll go broke.
Of course, if you DO have cash flow from other sources, you can s pend more. It all depends on how much spare cash per customer you have when it comes to outlaying your customer acquisition dollars. If, for example, you have an average of $10 in spare cash per customer, you can afford to spend $40, rather than $30.
In fact, since you’ll make so much more gross profit per customer in the second year ($70), then after the second year and an ongoing basis, you should theoretically have this money available as spare cash to enable you to spend an average of $50 per customer. Well, that’s the theory… but it assumes you retain all profits for future marketing expenses.
Realistically, you probably won’t reinvest ALL the money you make into marketing - and that’s why it’s important to keep track of CASH FLOW - not just LCV - when determining how much you spend on customer acquisition.