eMarketer’s Seven Predictions For 2009
By Anna Johnson on January 8th, 2009eMarketer CEO, Geoff Ramsey, has set out his seven (7) predictions for marketing in 2009. Nothing too surprising, but there is at least one insight worth elaborating on…
1. Marketers as a whole will reduce their marketing spend.
2. Among traditional media ad spending, newspapers, radio and magazines will suffer the most. In each case the economic recession is exacerbating an existing trend. Television will hold up the best, but will likely experience a 5 percent or greater decline in spending. Ad spending on radio will fall by 5 to 8 percent.
3. The reduction in overall marketing spending, combined with a ‘serious re-examination of traditional media, will set in motion a series of permanent changes that will affect how media is planned and measured, as well as the media mix itself.’
I agree with this. The rise of the Internet and the trend towards media convergence means marketing is increasingly becoming measurable… which means marketers will increasingly become accountable.
While I’m a fervent believer in the value of branding, paid branding efforts that cannot deliver measurable results will increasingly come under scrutiny. For at least the next few years, we are moving into a direct response world… although ‘response’ may be measured broadly.
4. Online advertising spending will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Internet marketers will focus, in particular, on search marketing, email and online video.
5. Fear-mongering about the demise of online marketing will become rife… and may become self-fulfilling.
6. Growth in online display advertising will slow, but only in terms of total dollar spending and only for a short period of time.
eMarketer is optimistic about display advertising based on new data indicating that the combination of display advertising with search marketing actually increases sales conversions, both off-line and online. The combination also tends to increase brand awareness, purchase intent, and the likelihood of someone to visit a website or otherwise engage with a brand.
7. Growth in ecommerce will drop. The number of online buyers won’t necessarily decrease, but their level of spending will.
Source: Geoff Ramsey, “Seven Predictions For 2009,” eMarketer, eMarketer, January 5, 2009
